TRG | The Bottom Line – 11/17

October housing numbers came out this week and continued the theme of “less bad” as demand remains for housing and the supply chain continues to find ways to deliver homes in a high rate environment. October starts were at 1,372K (above consensus of 1,345K) and Building Permits were 1,487K (above consensus of 1,446K). Starts overall continue to see sequential momentum, up 2% over September’s read, led by multi-family that is up 5% with single family up 0.2%. A better read is comparing today’s levels to the start of the year. Single family is up 18% while multi family is down 25%. We believe this dynamic will continue to play out into early 2024 as single family is aided by moderating rate increases and builder’s utilizing rate buy-downs, while multi family is expected to see continued slowdown in starts as the near record number of multi family units under construction continues to work itself down.