TRG | The Bottom Line – 3/25

America is a nation of citizens that are mobile. Migration to the southeast and southwest started to build in the wake of the economic disruption of the Great Recession. Covid was the social disruptor that has sent an additional tidal wave of population to the southeast and southwest. America remains one of the last places on this earth where meaningful population shifts are voluntary, driven more by choice (i.e., Not driven by war, famine, etc.). A new U.S. Census Bureau report helps to shed light on where people moved in the heart of the pandemic and where they ended up. While naysayers believe residential trends may cool because of lower birth rates post Great Recession or more recent interest rate actions/inflationary pressures, TRG continues to believe that resi will remain steady in key growth areas for several years, if not decades. It’s all about location, location, location. A few takeaways from the Census Bureau study:

1. Americans chased the sun. Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, Austin, and Atlanta collectively gained 300,000 residents from mid-2020 to mid-2021.

2. That came at the expense of “superstar cities.” New York, LA, Chicago, and San Francisco lost more than 700,000 people combined over the same time frame.

3. Growth is heavily concentrated. The 10 fastest-growing counties in the US made up nearly 80% of population growth during the period studied.

4. Size doesn’t matter. Micro areas, or regions with a core city of fewer than 50,000 residents, reversed their yearslong stagnation by increasing their populations. Kalispell and Bozeman in MT and Jefferson, GA, led the way.