TRG | The Bottom Line – 1/27

While headlines continue to focus on economic uncertainty, the nagging issue of labor remains unresolved. The labor shortage and overall workforce crisis isn’t just about the “Great Resignation” – it’s been decades in the making. Labor force participation rate has been on the downswing since 2000, and job openings have risen. Retirees, as a percentage of the population, have also climbed. Today, nearly 20% of the U.S. population are retirees. Work/refugee/legal asylum immigration has also plummeted in recent years. Then came Covid, impacting overall U.S. population growth – from July 2020 to July 2021, the U.S. population grew just 0.12%, the lowest annual rate since WWI. This stat recovered somewhat in 2022, increasing by 0.4%, mostly driven by a rebound in net international migration. Labor may not get much better, as the number of U.S. births have been declining every year since 2008 (except 2014). The “ripple effect” of financial uncertainty leading into the Great Recession exasperated the trend. Moreover, Millennials continue the trend of starting families later.